Is COVID-19 good news for the climate? Probably not [2/2]
What can Europe do?
Last December, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced the European Green Deal, a new growth strategy that aims to transform the EU from a high to a low-carbon economy. This will happen without reducing prosperity and while improving people’s quality of life, through cleaner air and water, better health and a thriving natural world. The main goal of the deal is to become the first climate neutral continent in the world by 2050; this is supported by a medium-term target of a 50%-55% cut in member states’ emissions by 2030 (compared with 1990 levels).
The project will cost at least €1 trillion over the next decade, according to the European commission. The EU budget will finance the biggest share, €503 bn, unleashing €114 bn more from national governments (because EU programmes often require a contribution from member states). The private sector should contribute at least for €279 bn, being incentivised to make risky green investments by loan guarantees from the European Investment Bank. On top of this, Brussels promised €100 bn for a “Just Transition Mechanism” that will focus on the regions and sectors most affected by the transition because they depend on fossil fuels or carbon-intensive processes.
Source: The European Commission
The deal sounds very ambitious, in terms of goals and resources. Although not everyone is confident that the foreseen budget will be enough,
everyone backs the European Green Deal, in theory: it is a bit like world peace.
Concretely, though, it seems that not each member state is aligned with Mrs. von der Leyen: Poland stated that it will reach climate neutrality at “its own pace”. In this time of economic crises due to COVID-19 pandemic, this pace can be extremely slow. The initiatives behind the deal should not be shelved under the pretext of the economic crisis, as probably some member states will ask, but to be placed at the center of the extraordinary public investment policy that now all economists consider necessary.
In addition, Europe plays a key role in keeping on international negotiations for emissions reductions. The spread of coronavirus has already resulted in the cancellation of some preliminary meetings at the United Nations climate conference planned in Glasgow in November, and the conference itself may be postponed. Without any doubt, the fight against climate change will lose positions in the global priorities list, and an even stronger diplomatic commitment will be needed to avoid failure.
In this respect, however, the pandemic could really offer an unexpected opportunity. Until a few weeks ago, it was widely believed that only a slowdown in the US economy could erode Donald Trump's re-election prospects in November. Now that slowdown is certainty. The magnate is determined to exit the Paris agreements and dismantle the leading role played by Barack Obama in international negotiations on climate issues: if the coronavirus crises could prevent this man to be re-elected at the White House, then it could have at least a lasting effect on the climate emergency.
