COP29: The Fox in Charge of the Henhouse
Amid Azerbaijan's fossil fuel expansion and human rights concerns, will Baku’s summit protect climate goals, or will it let vested interests derail the fight against global warming?
As the world gears up for COP29 in Baku this November, it's hard not to feel a sense of irony, if not outright concern, over Azerbaijan's role as the host of this global summit. With climate scientists urging immediate action to curb emissions, the fact that Azerbaijan—a nation on the verge of a massive expansion in fossil gas production—will be at the helm of negotiations feels like putting a fox in charge of the henhouse.
But before we dive into the implications of Azerbaijan's leadership, let’s break down the main agenda items of COP29 and the critical global stakes.
The Key Topics at COP29
1. The NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal)
One of the main discussions at COP29 will be around setting a new global finance target to support developing nations. The current pledge of $100 billion annually, made back in 2009, is woefully insufficient. Countries are looking at anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion annually to adequately fund adaptation and mitigation efforts. The key questions here will revolve around who should pay and how much, as well as how these funds will be distributed to ensure maximum impact.
2. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Countries will present updated emissions targets, part of the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5°C. The expectation is for countries to ratchet up their commitments, but the road has been bumpy, with some, like Azerbaijan, moving in the opposite direction.
3. Fossil Fuel Phaseout
COP29 will also revisit the crucial issue of phasing out fossil fuels, something COP28 in Dubai largely failed to address with the decisive action many had hoped for. Given Azerbaijan’s plans to increase gas production by nearly a third over the next decade, this issue is especially contentious. While countries like the U.S. and the EU will push for stronger language, it remains to be seen whether a true consensus on fossil fuel phaseout can be reached.
The Irony of Azerbaijan’s Role
Azerbaijan, with its state-owned energy giant Socar, is about to ramp up gas production from 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 49 bcm by 2033. This increase flies in the face of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2021 warning that no new fossil fuel exploitation should occur if we are to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, has overseen much of this fossil fuel expansion, all while making token gestures toward renewable energy. He has even described Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves as a “gift from God,” a line that conveniently deflects responsibility for his country’s continued reliance on fossil fuels. In 2023, Socar funneled 97% of its capital expenditure into oil and gas projects, leaving its so-called "green energy division" to languish in obscurity. And yet, Azerbaijan will be guiding the COP29 negotiations on behalf of the global community.
A Green Future… With a Side of Fossil Gas?
Socar and its allies have been quick to promote Azerbaijan’s budding investments in solar and wind energy, positioning the country as a leader in green energy. However, a closer look reveals that these projects are dwarfed by the $41.4 billion that fossil fuel companies are set to pour into Azerbaijan’s gas fields over the next decade. As if that weren’t enough, Socar secured $6.8 billion in loans from international financial institutions between 2021 and 2023, much of which will bankroll further fossil fuel exploration.
Adding to the controversy, Climate Action Tracker rated Azerbaijan's climate action plan as "critically insufficient" in September 2024. Analysts pointed out that Azerbaijan is not only failing to meet its climate goals but has also actively weakened its targets, doubling down on fossil fuel extraction at a time when the world is calling for a rapid transition away from it.
Human Rights Violations and Civil Society Concerns
Then there’s the human rights issue. The Azerbaijani government, under Aliyev, has been accused of silencing civil society and stifling freedom of speech. It rings a bell of COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in Dubai. Regine Richter of the German NGO Urgewald pointed out that tackling the climate crisis requires a strong, independent civil society, free to challenge the status quo. The fact that Azerbaijan, with its questionable human rights record, is steering the COP29 ship raises serious concerns about the integrity of the negotiations.
Fossil Fuels: A Global Power Play
It’s also important to remember that Azerbaijan is not acting in isolation. Socar collaborates with major fossil fuel players like BP, TotalEnergies, and Tatneft, along with the UAE’s state oil company, Adnoc. Guess what? The CEO of Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, chaired COP28, where nations failed to agree on a fossil fuel phaseout, choosing instead to “transition away” from fossil fuels.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that these summits are not just about reducing emissions but are also battlegrounds for geopolitical power struggles. Fossil fuel-rich nations like Azerbaijan are leveraging their resources to maintain their influence in global energy markets, even as the world teeters on the edge of climate catastrophe.
The Energy Transition: Just and Orderly?
Azerbaijan’s role as host of COP29 underscores the complexity of the global energy transition. The country has defended its continued fossil fuel expansion by pointing to Europe’s request for increased gas supplies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan’s government insists that its energy strategy is in line with the UN’s global stocktake, which calls for a “just and orderly” transition to green energy.
But can we really consider an expansion of fossil fuel production—while paying lip service to renewable energy—an orderly transition? Or is it simply a case of business as usual, with the world’s climate future hanging in the balance?
Looking Ahead
COP29 in Baku is poised to be one of the most controversial climate summits in recent history. On the one hand, it presents an opportunity for global leaders to make meaningful progress on climate finance, emissions reduction, and adaptation strategies (yes, I still believe that!). On the other, it’s a stark reminder that fossil fuel interests still have a firm grip on the levers of power.
As the world tunes in to watch the negotiations unfold, one question will loom large: Can we trust the fox to guard the henhouse? Or will COP29 be yet another missed opportunity to tackle the climate crisis head-on?
